Last year, there were a lot of reports about social unrest in China’s interior reaching 80,000 incidents. Much speculation came along with the reports, and to the credit of the central party and media, reports of various incidents are being made public on a regular basis. For me though, there are only a few reasons why someone in China’s hinterland would be motivated to stir the pot:

1. Loss of economic security (increased taxes or corruption)
2. Loss of support (health care & pension)
3. Loss of land (pollution & land grab)
4. Loss of the dream (job loss)

Essentially a 4 pegged stool, the above are what I call the pillars of stability. If one of the pillars is lost for a single person or a family member, then the risk of unrest increases. In the last 3-5 years, if there was one area that I think has been the biggest flash point, it was point #3. There have been a lot of cases reported of various pollutants entering the water tables, lakes, and rivers that have affected farmlands, and 3 years ago there was a big crazkdown on unauthorized economic zones that had taken people off their land. In september of 2004, a book investigating the conditions of Anhui’s farmers showed just how farmers were suffering from both industrial pollution and land grabs by local officials, and the resulting unrest. It sold a 100,000 or so copies in teh first week/ month before being pulled off the shelves… Fast forward to today, where I have just come upon an excellent article written by Christina Larson of the Washington Monthly called China’s Pollution Revolution. Through this article, Larson has done an excellent job of describing just how the system has let these farmers down, and what they are doing about it in complete narrative of one villages process. She covers how the initial applications were fudged, how the pollution that was never suppose to enter the river is clearly visible, and how pleas for assistance fell on deaf ears with local officials. It is a story that’s only missing part are pictures, but it is definitely the most complete story I have seen to date by a western reporter and I HIGHLY SUGGEST you read it. As I have reported in recent weeks, I believe that the conditions that Larson has found are on the way out. through my consulting work, I have had conversations with a number of officials lately who told me that EPA applications were no longer rubber stamped. I have also heard of projects that received local approval, but be knocked down by Beijing… and the recent events in Xiamen have only reinforced my conclusions.